Macron’s chances in the second round of the presidential election

Translated by Farah El Desouky

Outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron won the first round of French presidential elections on April 10, advancing to the second round, which will be held on April 24th. With Marine Le Pen, the right-wing candidate who came in second place behind Macron, there was a clear convergence of results between candidates in elections, an unexpected advance for some candidates at the expense of others, and vice versa.

As a result, this analysis focuses on the results of the 2022 French presidential elections in comparison to the previous elections in 2017, the frontrunner in the second round, and the positions of the leading candidates following the announcement of the first-round result, as well as their impact on the final outcome of the Elysée elections.

Results are as follows:

The first round of the French presidential election saw Emmanuel Macron take 27.8 percent of the vote, compared to 23.1 percent for Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate. second place behind Macron, will face off in the second round on April 24. While the left-wing candidate, John Melonchon, finished third with 22 percent of the vote, he was followed by far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, who received 7.1 percent of the total voter vote. The fourth candidate was Valerie Pecres, a Republican Party candidate who received 4.8 percent of the vote despite being remotely infected with coronavirus prior to the election. These are the results of the most prominent candidates, as opposed to the low ratios of the remaining 12 candidates.

As a result, a number of French analysts and polling institutions predict a convergence of results between Macron and Le Pen in the second and final round of presidential elections. The IFOP Institute is the most likely to give Macron 15 percent of the vote, compared to 49 percent for Le Pen, which is very close to the results of the second round of the 2017 election, which Macron and Le Pen also fought in, in which Macron received approximately 66 percent of the vote. Despite close first-round results, Macron received 24.1 percent of the vote, while Marine Le Pen received 21.3 percent.

The increase in the proportions of both candidates in the first round could be attributed to the fact that Macron and his “Republic Forward” party were newcomers to the scene in the previous elections. Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, was a member of her father’s party, which was known for racist and extremist statements, which caused voters to be hesitant to vote for her in the 2017 elections, after which she defected from her father and removed him from the party presidency. Macron’s rise at the expense of Le Pen came after he represented a rebuke to the right-wing parties that dominate French society.

Marine Le Pen’s rise in this election may be due to the turmoil in Macron’s first term from price-boiling protests, the first mistaken handling of the coronavirus crisis and the submarine crisis, which Le Pen used to attract a number of voters to, but the same is why Macron has returned and weighed again after being able to cope with the virus, recover from its economic consequences, and achieve high growth rates.

Macron’s fortunes are changing:


Despite the apparent convergence of results, the strength of Marine Le Pen’s opponent, and the difficulty in predicting a final outcome or percentage for the next round of elections, However, the current outgoing President of France, Emmanuel Macron, remains the frontrunner to this point, which was declared by polls prior to the election, and it was supported by the results of the first round, despite significant competition in the elections and a diversity of candidates’ political and ideological affiliations, from the right, center, and left. Based on the foregoing, it is worth emphasizing that there is a confluence of factors pointing to Macron’s victory in the second round of elections, the most important of which are:

(*) Positions of opponents: Meet Eric Zmor’s endorsement of Marin Le Pen in the second round and invite his supporters to vote for Le Pen in the next round support for the majority of Emmanuel Macron’s other candidates, with some expressly supporting Emmanuel Macron s Republic of Korea “, such as Valerie Pecres, who urged her candidates to vote for Macron immediately after the results of the first round were announced, She acted on her socialist fiction I Hidalgo, Green Party candidate Yannick Gado, and Communist Party Fabian Rossell. Others called on his supporters not to vote for Le Pen, which in itself is implicit support for Macron. Like leftist John Melonchon, as Philip Bhutto took the same position, in order to withhold votes from Le Pen, this position may be due to the fact that Macron is the least intense in ideas, more pragmatic in dealing with internal and external issues, which tends to be expected in Emmanuel Macron’s favor in the second round, it also enjoys considerable support from a section of French people who reject the extremist ideas of right-wing parties, as manifested in the first round.

Those votes in the second round are likely to go to Macron as a result of Melonchon’s invitation to supporters not to vote for Le Pen, should Milonchon declare his explicit support for Macron in the coming days, after Macron announced his intention to visit Mullose and Strasbourg after more than a third of their voters voted Luke Melenchon committees.

(*) Electoral programs: Marine Le Pen’s electoral program was widely criticized in the French interior, and polls show that more than half of French people are more interested in the topics of purchasing power, wages, and energy prices, especially after refusing to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector in exchange for Washington’s rights “, as opposed to the subjects of education, migration, and health care, which Le Pen focused on in her electoral program.

(*) French communities: Moroccan countries such as Morocco voted for Miloncheon with 40.24 percent and Macron with 37.87 percent, almost the same as Algeria, after French communities voted for Miloncheon with 55.4 percent and Macron with 37 percent. In Tunisia, Macron led the vote results, followed by Milonshon, and then the far right.

North Africa overwhelmingly supported Milonshon, followed by Macron. In Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, Macron’s vote was split between Milenchon and Le Pen, with Le Pen finishing third. Although there are no polls of these communities’ opinions in the second round of elections, a majority of votes are likely to go to Macron, or at least not to Le Pen, which is an interest for Macron in and of itself. So, Macron’s most important challenge is to try to attract the category that abstained and voted for Milonshon (left) by abandoning the reforms he demands in the Retirement Act, while retaining the segment that voted for him.

(*) Migrants and Muslims: Melonchon and Macron shared the voices in this category. Despite the abuses levelled against the Islamic religion during Macron’s first term, such as the appearance of offensive drawings of the Prophet Muhammad and the closure of some mosques, the Islamic religion continues to thrive. Melonchon received the most votes in both the first and second rounds. Choices will be limited to Macron and Le Pen, both of whom are unsuitable for dealing with Muslims and their issues. As a result, their choice may be based on the least bad candidate in dealing with them, Emmanuel Macron, because Le Pen’s victory would represent a significant restriction for Muslims and immigrants, as recently confirmed by Izzedine.

(*) The Ukrainian War: which demonstrated Macron’s ability as a statesman to give his country an important place on the international stage and in decisive decisions regardless of the outcome of France’s role in the war as well as its presidency of the European Union, which coincided with the Ukrainian War, At the same time, Macron did not lose sight of the internal crisis as the crisis raged. (Fuel price boilers) that will undoubtedly be produced if they participate in US sanctions against Russian energy exports.

(*) Le Pen’s ideology: which is not beyond the ideology of right-wing parties in general anti-Muslim, immigrant and minority groups in general, and their relationship with Russia after rejecting sanctions on Russian energy and its demand for Macron to remain impartial, so much so that some in Washington have pointed to the possibility of Russian interference in elections in favor of Le Pen. and its pledges to exit NATO once it wins, and there are warnings of its intentions about the weakening of the European Union, the French role in it and the cancellation of free trade That will not be in its interest, because a large section of the electorate does not support these positions. and, if it has tried to show somewhat moderation recently in its positions, it has also recently denied its intentions to leave the European Union. and her split from her far-right father, Jean-Nare Le Pen, as well as her previous remarks that France should leave the euro and used the Ukrainian war to declare that its relationship with President Putin had changed.

Indeed, as President of France for the past five years, Macron has faced many crises that his predecessors did not. Many violent and influential internal protests, as well as the global coronavirus crisis and its economic ramifications. Despite the Ukrainian War, he was able to fulfil a large portion of his electoral promises not all, but a substantial portion His government had also worked to correct a blunder in dealing with the coronavirus, which had resulted in an increase in the number of infections before dropping dramatically. According to many experts, the country’s economic growth rate has risen to levels not seen in more than a half-century, all of which will be in Macron’s best interests.

Finally, all of Macron’s above-mentioned weights, this list is merely a case law on indicators and indications confirmed by the results of the close first round as a result, while Macron’s chances are the best, it is not surprising that Marine Le Pen turns the tables. by declaring her the winner of the presidential election if she succeeds in her difficult task of attracting Lysar’s votes, in conjunction with demonizing and distorting Macron’s electoral platform, or shaking confidence in him in their upcoming debate.

وردة عبد الرازق

رئيس برنامج الدراسات الأوروبية و الأمريكية ، حاصلة على بكالوريوس علوم سياسية، جامعة بنى سويف، الباحثة مهتمة بدارسة الشأن التركي ومتابعة لتفاعلاته الداخلية والخارجية

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