Tunisia’s political landscape has been rapidly shifting in recent days in terms of the Muslim Brotherhood’s status. After nine months of freezing the work of Parliament, Tunisian President Kais Saied decided to dissolve it after some of its members held an online meeting, indicating that Saeed had no intention of possible complacency with any challenge to the measures he had taken since July 25.
The decision of Qais Saeed to dissolve Parliament – in the context of Tunisian moves to expedite investigations into postponed cases – refers to the near end of the time of political Islam in Tunisia, particularly in light of accusations levelled against “Rashed Ghanouchi,” chairman of the Ennahda movement, and some members of the movement, the most serious of which is to conspire against state security. He recalls that “Ghanouchi” rejected Saeed’s decision to dissolve Parliament, which raises the following concerns: Is there a risk of a hard or violent clash between Tunisia’s political power and the Ennahda movement in the current situation? What is the most likely future scenario for the Movement?
Since Tunisia’s President Qais Said froze Parliament’s work on July 25, we have already developed two scenarios, which are as follows:
(*) Scenario 1: Tunisia’s state is likely to face international constraints and pressures from political arms of terrorism within Tunisia and its allied groups “. The Tunisian state merely punishes terrorists on an individual basis for crimes that will be proven through trials. It allows for the participation of brotherly or militant groups in future political life; it allows for the participation of religious parties in elections while excluding elements found to be involved in criminal offences; and it allows for the continuation of work of community-based institutions affiliated with extremist groups while monitoring them terrorist brotherhood “If it does not stand up to international pressure in support of the terrorist brotherhood. Although this scenario has been confirmed in its timing by determinants or paths that may be taken at the time – this is occurring in light of the world’s reluctance to pay attention to internal unrest in Arab States. Thus, the foregoing can be emphasized by a decline in the likelihood of such a scenario, particularly as global interest in fraternal media and an export of problems created as a result of the escalating repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the subsequent economic and political consequences, is declining.
Scenario 2: This scenario may have as its main focus the Tunisian State classifying the Brotherhood as terrorist, and thus it may be the closest scenario for verification, according to current data, beginning with the “renaissance” of a terrorist group, with the consequent dissolution of religiously based parties, the placement of fraternity associations and projects under financial and administrative control, the confiscation of terrorist entities’ funds.
As a result, the Tunisian government must complete its actions by criminalizing any content that the terrorist group claims are violent. It also purges mosques of seditionist imams. It also prevents extremists from gaining a foothold.
The conflict in Tunisia between the Ennahda movement and the state is a possibility, not long ago, to read the history of the Brotherhood movement. We should brace ourselves for the possibility of violence.
The likelihood of a clash:
Based on the foregoing, the Tunisian scene is likely to witness high levels of violence by the group, particularly if Tunisia’s President resumes his actions and makes constitutional amendments to ensure that Islam does not participate in the upcoming elections. This will result in the suspension of the project to betray State institutions and correct the situation. The Brotherhood and its allied extremist groups may resort to terrorist acts in the coming period, particularly if they lose hope of negotiating and international efforts to return to power, as they have done throughout history in the event of a clash with the Authority in all previous crises. History, beginning with the assassination of Al-Nakrashi and Al-Khazandar in Egypt, the assassination of Ahmed Maher and the attempted assassination of President., is the best witness.
In its struggle with the Authority under “Habib Bourguiba,” the Tunisian Brotherhood reportedly carried out acts of violence and bombings in the 1980s, during which time it burned down the “Democratic Constitutional Rally” party, and the killings of the 1990s, leading to the assassinations and terrorism of recent years.
Finally, the Nahda Movement is likely to be active in communicating with members of the Brotherhood of Terror in Egypt, especially now that the Renaissance Party of Tunisia has taken control of the Tunisian Parliament. The Tunisian Brotherhood will also use the Egyptian Brothers to coordinate with one another through the Group’s secret apparatus in order to carry out violence and bombings in Egypt.