Repercussions of the Ukrainian war on the African continent

Translated by Farah El Desouky

As a result of high prices for petroleum, cereals, and fertilizers, the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war has exacerbated the political and economic situation in most African countries. More than 75 percent of Africa’s population depends on agriculture as a major source of national income, raising fears of worsening poverty and famine in most African countries.

Most published international reports indicate that the price of oil increased by more than $100 per barrel (US $120 at the time of the report), resulting in higher prices for imported agricultural raw materials and cereals in all African countries, particularly wheat, of which Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers to the African continent, and Russia is a major producer of fertilizers.

Despite what he has said in the past, and the serious consequences of the war on the African continent that he has mentioned, the situation has no negative impact on the African continent. It may well show signs of recovery for the economies of some African countries, particularly those producing and exporting oil and natural gas, especially now that the European energy crisis has worsened.

Based on the preceding, this analysis aims to answer two major questions: How far can African natural gas reserves go in resolving Europe’s crisis? How far can Europe go in combating the spread of hunger and poverty in Africa as a result of the crisis?

Dangerous repercussions:

According to some reports, some of the Wagner Special Security Group’s forces, which are based in a number of African countries such as Mali, Libya, and Africa, have moved beyond the continent’s borders in order to assist Russian forces in the war in Ukraine, amid fears that the African continent will become a Cold War arena as a result of the world order’s shift to a multipolar world in which Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union

It should be noted that Wagner has been accepted by many African States, the most important of which are: Mali, Central Africa, and Burkina Faso, as a result of French and European failures to confront terrorist groups in the Sahel and West Africa region, many published reports mention the transfer of some 400 “Wagner” fighters from African States to Ukraine 5 weeks before the war began.

With the withdrawal of many of Wagner’s forces in Africa over the past period, and possibly more if the war is prolonged, there will be a clear retreat, a temporary ramification of Russian influence in some of their areas of influence in Africa, which could pose a threat to the security of those countries, especially after the withdrawal of French forces, and a lack of readiness of some of their armies to confront terrorist groups, implying greater incursions.

It is not possible to calculate the energy crisis and its solutions:

The Ukrainian conflict highlighted the dangers of Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, and the conflict raised concerns among European countries about the disruption of Russian gas flow and its high prices to European consumers, who are suffering from a severe cost-of-living crisis. As a result, it appears that replacing Russian gas with African gas, the best alternative for Europe, will face a problem that may go unresolved at a critical juncture, especially given the African alternative’s numerous challenges.

Although Africa has vast reserves of gas, it lacks the infrastructure to export it, so if the United States of America and Europe fail to persuade the customers of the State of Qatar, the second largest natural gas producer associated with contracts to supply gas to Europe instead, the situation of bad gas in Europe will worsen, which may be reflected in the governing regimes of those countries, and may be affected by an election in the first election.

Following the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Algeria expressed its willingness to increase its natural gas exports to Urban. However, there are many concerns about Algeria’s ability to supply adequate gas to Europe as a result of its significant decrease in reserves and contractual commitments. Medgar, which arrives in Spain without passing through Morocco after Algeria refused to renew a pipeline contract through Morocco, severing diplomatic relations with it, but Algeria lacks the capacity to meet Spain’s needs alone.

On the other hand, despite Egypt’s record of the largest growth in gas exports in 2021, according to OPEC reports, Egypt’s exports recorded 1.4 million tons of liquefied gas in the second quarter of 2021, but Egypt is not linked to a pipeline network for export to Europe to date. and China has made long-term offers to supply Egypt with gas on favorable terms, it makes sense for Egypt to maintain a documented resource. as a result of political instability and insufficient Libyan infrastructure to promote Libyan exports to replace Russian gas to Europe, and maintain its share of the Chinese market, as does Libya. [vi]

As EU countries seek an immediate alternative to the Russian gas project,” European Commission Executive Vice-President Margate Vestager visited the Nigerian capital of Abuja, meeting with Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo to discuss increasing LNG from Nigeria. LNG is a major LNG supplier to Europe, with total exports of approximately 12.63 billion cubic meters in 2021. According to the data, Spain is the largest beneficiary of Nigerian gas, followed by France, Portugal, and finally Turkey. s export establishment capacity of approximately 31 billion cubic meters per year. [vii]

Food crisis indicators for the near and medium term:

As the war in Ukraine raged on, the effects of rising food prices and a scarcity of staple crops worsened on the African continent. The United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has issued a warning about the global escalation of hunger and poverty as a result of the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.

According to publicly available data, Russia and Ukraine account for a quarter of global wheat exports, with 40 percent of wheat and maize going to the African and Middle Eastern region, which is already suffering from rising poverty and hunger in many of its countries. Millions of people are also being impacted by rising food prices and shortages.

Global observatories predict that the outbreak of war, the increase in the price of fertilizer fuel, and the high transport cost of agricultural crops and agricultural materials will result in a new 20-30% increase in food prices, requiring many urgent actions, most notably food relief for those at risk, and encouraging States not to think individually about their needs.

In conclusion, while some African countries may benefit from a shift in global markets away from Russia as a result of the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, the potential short-term effects will have a greater impact on livelihoods, bringing more African citizens into the cycle of poverty and hunger, which may affect most African countries whose economies already suffer from low growth rates, especially since they are still suffering from the consequences of the Corona cries As a result, the Ukrainian crisis poses a significant threat to the continent’s population in the short and medium term.

Ahmed Askar, does the Russian – Ukrainian war affect Wagner’s role in Africa? On link:

https://acpss.ahram.org.eg/News/17424.aspx

The Wagner fighters are Russia’s tool to hack Ukraine on the link:

https://www.ida2at.com/wagner-fighters-russia-tool-infiltrate-ukraine/

War in Ukraine: A new Russian mercenary force on the link:

https://www.bbc.com/arabic/world-60708807

[iv] http ://makhbarylyom.com/news/news/newdetails/3677119/1/1% D9% 87% D9% 84-% D8% AA% D8% A4% DAB% D8% B1-D8% 7% D9%

Can Algeria compensate Europe for Russian gas?

https://www.bbc.com/arabic/world-60555156

[6] http ://www.dw.com/en/european-to-africa-to-mile-gas-gap/a-61017873 #: – نص = NIGAL% 20ggas% 20pippeline% 20project% 20revied & next = وفقًا لـ 20% 20media% 20reeds% 20G.

[7] http ://www.spglobal.com/serial-virtuals/en/market-virtuals/future-news/natural-gas/021522-nigria-euro-to-to-effects for-lng-selects

[الثامن] https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/nigeria-makes-breakthrough-into-europe-lng-market-1.425311

[تاسعا] https://reliefweb.int/report/world/impacts-ukraine-conflict-food-security-already-being-felt-near-east-north-africa-region

[س] https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/war-in-ukraine-and-global-food-crisis