5 important factors: when will the Russia-Ukraine war end?

The Russia-Ukraine war is entering it’s forth week and the Russian army keeps on bombing different areas the last bombing was of the theater of marbobol, as it continues to invade Kiev. There is a glimpse of hope that might be an indication that the Russia-Ukraine might end soon is that fire stopped a couple of days ago. And negotiations started to be more open from both sides in Turkey and Belorussia. And the arrangement of a meeting between both presidents. Another indication is that human passes for civilians opened from Ukraine to Belorussia. Through this article we will discuss why the Russia-Ukraine war might end soon.

Important updates:

After months of the Ukrainian president on joining the NATO, and not caring about the Russian troops on his borders, that continued after the Russian invasion on the 24th of February. Ukraine insisted on resisting Russia and asked its allies to support it, in return of the continues bombing of Russia. Important updates happened in the Ukraine case:

  • Zelenskyy’s position: the shift started with the change of attitude of the Ukrainian president Zelenskyy’s. he announced in an interview that he is no longer interested in Ukraine joining the NATO “after we realized that the NATO is not welcoming Ukraine, the organization didn’t want to stand for Ukraine”. He also mentioned in another interview that joining “wasn’t a wise choice”, which some analysists consider it a strategic withdrawal from Kiev’s side. The secretariat general of the NATO issued a statement that include similar indications to the Ukrainian’s president “our only aim is to protect our member states and its important that Russia understands this” this shows that NATO is not willing to protect Ukraine. Zelenskyy also indicated that he is looking into the separation of western Ukrainian states, and the Crimea case, the negotiation with Russia with the full security measures to Ukraine.
  • Negotiations with Belarus: it seems that the negotiations with Belarus is going forward, it might indicate that Ukraine is neutral with Sweden and Austria as mentioned by the kremlin’s speaker Demetri Bischof” negotiators are looking into the neutralization of Ukraine, a choice that can be reviewed as settling the conflict”. As the President of the Mosco delegate group for the negotiation Velde mire medinscy the terms of neutralization of Ukraine and the recognition Crimea and the new Nazis. The Russian minister of foreign affairs serge Lavrov confirmed that there is a neutralization consideration with the terms of maintain the Russian security. But the Ukrainian Government announced that they are considering the neutralization but without any guarantees of maintaining the Russian security.
  • Diplomatic efforts: that has been cut off since the beginning of the invasion, but diplomatic connections are starting to be back since the beginning of this week, as communication between Putin and other European leaders such as France’s president Macron, and the visit of the Turkish minister of foreign affairs to Mosco and Putin’s message that they almost “cut off the Ukrainian armed forces”. And the first round of negotiation between the Russian and Ukrainian Prime ministers in Antalya, Turkey on the 10th of march. Also, the visit of the Israeli prime mister Neftali Bennet to Mosco last week, then he went to Germany. Some about a call between Bennet and Zelenskyy about giving some compromise the end the issue was released. Succeeding Israel agreed on Zelenskyy giving a speech on the keenest, before Israel refused to do so previously as am act to maintain its relationship with Russia. Also, the visit of Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic prime ministers to Ukraine and meeting Zelenskyy, which surely had come with the approval of Russia. Mosco is working on parallel solutions, the negotiations with Belarus, and continuing their military Intervention.
  • Relations with Iran: Russia has asked the US to ensure that the sanctions imposed on Russia due to the current situation will not affect the future agreements between Russia and Tehran, and their free nuclear weapon agreement without any effects on trade, military, technical, investment, and economy. Which delayed the process of signing the agreement as some analysists thought that the nuclear agreement will be placed as a threat card on the western countries about Ukraine. And the approval of the idea that some of the ongoing issues can only be solved by Mosco. Russia’s prime minster confirmed that they have received some guarantees that the sanctions imposed on Russia will not affect its relationship with Iran.
  • The threat of the power supply of Russia: it’s clear that the Russian supply to European countries is their only source of economic stability after the sanctions imposed by the US on Russia, which they have used as a pressure on European states to not follow the US decision of banning the import of Russian oil, making use of the unstable relations between the US and Gulf countries. But the continues seeking of the US to find alternative importers of oil will keep the support of European states without the oil prices increasing. With the trail of improving its relationship with Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, the white house issued reports that Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia is happening soon. And the visit of Boris Johnson to Riyadh last week as an intermediator in the efforts of improving the US-Saudi relations. Other reports indicate that the US prime mister might be visiting Saudi Arabia soon, along with the Belarus oil supply.

What does Putin want?

Putin doesn’t want the Russian troops to preeminently stay in Ukraine as he saw the economic and military cost of invading Ukraine which he doesn’t want to continue for so long. The invasion might be a message sent to the west of Russia’s power and a threat to Mosco’s neighboring countries if they think of joining the NATO, they will face similar consequences similar to the Ukrainian invasion. Especially after seeing the west not

Protecting Ukraine.

So, Putin might settle for the guarantees that Ukraine will not join the NATO, which is thought to be true as the diplomatic negotiations started about the end of armed invasion of Ukraine. Of course Russia will have other terms since they have put a lot of money in the Ukraine invasion and they are wining until now, some of these terms might include the  inclusion of Russia in Crimea and other separate arears in the region of Donbass as two separate states, and the announcement of Ukraine as a neutral state and the removal of its weapons. Subsequently Putin will suffice with what he has reached in Ukraine and the opportunity of gaining from the Ukrainian economy to overcome the cost of the invasion, and make use of Ukraine’s ports.

In regards to the separation of some Ukrainian states Zelenskyy is willing to discuss this matter with Putin in respect to what the residents of these states want, what is known is that these states are loyal to Russia. But the difficulty is in the joining of Crimea, until this moment Ukraine’s decision is not final, even after the conservation of Ukraine about the Russian demand of claiming the sovereignty of Crimea and the actual control of the Donbass region. But in worst case Ukraine will have to agree on these terms. Which will force Zelenskyy to use his charisma to persuade the Ukrainian with agreeing on these terms as they see him as a hero ever since the invasion started.

And, on the issue of Ukraine’s neutrality, Russian officials stated that they sensed a “convergence” of positions, as well as the issue of disarmament, and Zelenskyy himself stated, “We are in the middle of the road regarding negotiations on Ukraine’s disarmament” and the withdrawal from NATO, but the difference is in the issue of security guarantees. Because neutrality will necessitate Russia’s recognition that Western countries will assist it if it is threatened again, and this may be the most difficult point for Moscow; Because it would necessitate Russia’s acceptance of the West’s future defense of Ukraine, but it could accept that if restrictions were placed on the quality of weapons provided to Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine indicated last week that there had been some progress in the talks aimed at finding a political formula that guarantees Ukraine security protection outside NATO, the most important condition for Moscow, but if the negotiations falter permanently for whatever reason – which is a somewhat remote possibility – and, at the very least, if the negotiations falter permanently for whatever reason – and, at the very least, if the negotiations falter permanently for whatever reason – and, at the very least, if the negotiations falter permanently for It is possible that, in exchange for fully meeting its demands, Russia will abandon the condition of Ukraine’s complete disarmament and impose controls or restrictions, for example, on the development of the Ukrainian military field, and abandon the idea of Zelenskyy’s departure.

It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine discussed a draught agreement that includes 15 items. Within the framework of the draught, Kyiv abandons its desire to join NATO and pledges not to host any foreign armies or weapons on its territory (military bases), in exchange for Western allies’ protection. Such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Turkey.

Finally, despite the agreement reached between Moscow and Kiev on some conditions, it is unclear what Russia means by neutrality and its relationship to Ukraine’s demilitarization, and whether Kyiv will accept such a future. Also, it is unclear what the final security guarantees demanded by Kyiv are, or whether Washington will agree to Ukraine’s surrender, which would be a victory for Russia and the end of its economic and military losses. On the other hand, Putin confirms that his country does not want to occupy Ukraine, but will achieve its full military objectives there, in conjunction with receiving the Turkish Foreign Minister in Russia, and Putin and Macron contacted and informed him of Moscow’s demands.  But the most important thing is Putin’s clear desire from the start not to remain in Ukraine completely, and his exploitation of the military progress there, as well as the exploitation of the energy weapon, before threatening the event of the US agreeing with the OPEC countries after Venezuela, to ensure that the West accepts the status quo after the agreement with Kiev.

وردة عبد الرازق

رئيس برنامج الدراسات الأوروبية و الأمريكية ، حاصلة على بكالوريوس علوم سياسية، جامعة بنى سويف، الباحثة مهتمة بدارسة الشأن التركي ومتابعة لتفاعلاته الداخلية والخارجية

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